Pot Luck Guide to the 132nd running of the Kentucky Derby

With the Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass Stakes having been run on April 15th and the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland a week later, all of the major prep races for the 132nd Kentucky Derby are in the books and it's time to take a serious look at which horses have a real chance to be there at the wire on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs in Kentucky. The Arkansas and the Bluegrass, much like the Santa Anita Derby held two earlier here in Los Angeles County, were pretty much races in name only. Though each field contained otherwise fine three year old horses, Lawyer Ron, Sinister Minister and Brother Derek respectively trounced their nominal competition. The Wood Memorial, also held on April 8th at Aqueduct in New York, was a much closer event between the three horse that finished in the money and a hard event to know how to read given the horrible slop in which it was run. Bob and John, the winner, and runners-up Jazil and Keyed Entry still deserve some sort of consideration in the Kentucky Derby picture, but it is hard to say how much. Last, both Illinois Derby champion Sweetnorthernsaint and the undefeated Florida Derby champ Barbaro are deserving attention as well. Showing Up, winner of the Lexington for trainer Barclay Tagg, may have something to say about it as well, though health issues may preclude the colt from making a run for the roses.

Anything can happen in a race like the Kentucky Derby, given its long, 1 1/8 mile length and the twenty-wide field the nation's premier race inevitably draws. We need only to look to last years event, in which a 50-1 longshot named Giacomo ran the race of his life to take the context. Less dramatic but no less striking is the fact that no morning-line favorite has won the Kentucky Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1979, whereas the favorite tends to win about one in every three thoroughbred races run.

This year may be the exception. Brother Derek, ridden by California's top jockey Alex Solis (no disrespect to Garrett Gomez and Patrick Valenzuela intended), figures to be the favorite this year and I would be fairly surprised if anyone catches him. There is a lot of speed in this year's race, and both Lawyer Ron and Sinister Minister seem likely to challenge him at that game and, based on what we've seen, either one could succeed. Or, conversely--and perhaps more likely--the trio could end up wearing each other out and a horse like Barbaro, Sweetnorthensaint or even Keyed Entry could end up making a late move to steal the contest. Still, I think Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, and Sinister Minister have to be the top three choices for May 6th, followed by Barbaro and perhaps Sweetnorthernsaint.

Keyed Entry is my longshot choice for the Derby. After losing his last two races as the heavy favorite, his stock has plummeted and he is likely to go off at 35-1 or so. But I still think he is a fine horse, and he had a pretty good six furlong workout at Churchill Downs last week, just behind Barbaro and Fleet Valid to finish 3rd of eleven at 1:12.80. Three races back in the Hutcheson at Florida's Gulfstream Park, he absolutely outclassed First Samurai, a horse that had previously been on a roll. First Samurai never really recovered from that loss, and was pretty much of a non-factor on the 15th at Oaklawn. In Keyed Entry's next race at Aqueduct I felt that his finish to place behind longshot Like Now was a result of that horse 1.) getting off to a very good start and setting a manageable pace and 2.) not being taken seriously enough by Keyed Entry's jockey Edgar Prado until it was too late. Keyed Entry made an impressive drive at the end and I think the result might have been different if Prado had asked him to find that speed perhaps fifteen or twenty yards sooner. As I mentioned earlier, the Wood was run under conditions reminiscent of the song "Jumpin' Jack Flash" and racing in the mud is entirely different than on a fast track. So I think Keyed Entry, if he is entered, is worth putting a couple bucks down if the odds are anything like the 32-1 he ended up in the last Kentucky Derby Futures pool and is certainly a horse that needs to be remembered if you are going to indulge in any kind of exotic wagering (exacta, trifecta, etc.).

Summary:

Top Picks:
Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
Sinister Minister

Longshot:
Keyed Entry

Remember in exotics:
Barbaro
Bob and John
Sweetnorthernsaint